Last eight exposé
It is said that March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. I wouldn't know. The weather systems in Ireland don't seem to follow any logical pattern that I can figure out. My wife is obsessed with weather forecasts, I tend to look at the clouds on the horizon. If they're dark it will rain, if they're white it won't. When I hear hooves I think horses not zebras. I believe what I see. Forecasting is a mugs game which is why we have so many poor gamblers, but if you really watch and study, you can make a vague prediction.
Had I been asked before the games last week I would have said:
Veszprém will beat Flensburg, but there is a slim chance that Flensburg could win. They're at home with a great crowd and the atmosphere is amazing there, but if we look at the evidence with our eyes, Flensburg have been hit and miss this season in the Champions League. Maybe they're focusing on the Bundesliga, I wouldn't know, it's not my area of expertise. Maybe they had a lot of new players to assimilate into the squad. Whatever the reasons they were no match for a resurgent Veszprém, who since the turn of the year were going from strength to strength.
Barcelona will easily beat Nantes. Enough said there. Nantes made a hash of it (if you'll excuse the pun) and their game management was shocking, highlighted by the bizarre occurrence of not figuring out they were facing an empty goal with only four defenders ahead of them.
Vardar will beat Szeged at home by four, five goals. I've seen them all season and they are a tough bunch, playing for each other in a difficult situation. Szeged by contrast seems to have peaked in their dramatic win against Paris and haven’t exactly been setting the Champions League on fire since the turn of the year.
Kielce can trouble Paris a lot. They maybe could win, but it would be narrow and I'd never bet against Paris. What we saw was an annihilation. This was a band of brothers who went with all-out war on their French rivals and smashed them. The camaraderie they showed, the willingness to fight and die for each other was in stark contrast to the ‘sang froid’ of Paris who looked emotionless and content that their superior skills would see them through.
So I would have predicted a Veszprém win (if I had to put my head on the block), a Vardar win, a Barcelona win and an "I don't know for sure" at Kielce. It is the manner of the defeats that has left me bewildered and flabbergasted.
The Last 8 of the VELUX EHF Champions League which promised some lion-like contest was in all frankness just four teams being led like lambs to the slaughter. I have always been a fan of the quarter-finals more so than semi-finals (which I find quite drab and defensive), but what we have here is the ‘rara avis’ of all the ties being over before the second leg is even played.
I can quote the great comeback of Berlin by 11 goals against Leon in 2012, but Berlin were a far better team and had the second leg at home. Barcelona pulled back seven against RNL in 2014 and were lucky to do it in the end, getting through on away goals.
To be honest I can't see Szeged winning by 9, they haven't done it all season and it won't start now. Nantes have little or no chance away to Barcelona. Flensburg will cause some problems for Veszprém, but they won't overturn that deficit (although they have history of overturning 6-goal leads.) Which only leaves Paris. They were unlucky at times in the game the other day and you can't expect their goal scoring machine to misfire as much this time. But still if Kielce approach the game with no fear it should be a done deal.
But ... never say never.
I say this more in hope than in expectation. Seán Connery once gleefully announced that he would never play Bond again. He did, once more in a movie ‘tongue-in-cheek’ titled “Never Say Never Again.”
So on the off-chance that there is an upset, here are my headlines for the comebacks. There is no copyright so feel free to plagiarise.
"The Non-Pareil of Nantes"
"The Phenomenon of Flensburg"
"The Puissance of Paris"
"The Sensation of Szeged"
I'll leave you with another old saying: ‘One swallow does not a summer make,’ but my gut tells me we know our EHF FINAL4 contenders already.
TEXT: Tom Ó Brannagáin, ehfTV.com commentator
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